Written by Philip Mauriello Jr., Managing Attorney of Arete Law A.P.C. and host of the California Underground Podcast
Numbers don’t lie, but those who benefit from extended shut downs do. This is becoming the realization across the country as more and more information continues to come to light in the wake of this pandemic.
Just the other day, a study released by the University of Southern California revealed that there are potentially hundreds of thousands of people who already had the coronavirus and showed no symptoms. This influx of new numbers shows that the true fatality rate of the virus is much lower than originally believed. A similar study out of Stanford indicated that the mortality rate is much lower, likely in the range of 0.02-0.12%. In the same week, New York released similar findings suggesting that almost three million residents have had the virus.
People in the media are painting this as bleak news. “See how wide spread the virus is!? We must continue our efforts to flatten the curve!” The only thing bleak about this news is it shows how badly we destroyed the livelihoods of millions of Americans over a virus that is not remotely as severe as it was made out to be.
The numbers show the stark truth that the fatality rate of this virus is much lower than originally projected. Los Angeles, led by Democratic Mayor Eric Garcetti, argues that they are in for more shutdowns and social distancing probably until the end of the year. The data from the USC study does not support any reason for this to occur. If we are to take even the low number from the study and calculate, the mortality rate comes out to 0.3%.
Here in San Diego, the number could be even lower. Just going off the actual numbers (not including how many people probably had it without testing positive), the mortality rate here in San Diego of those testing positive is about 4%. Extend that out to include the entire county’s population and you get 0.00003%. Doesn’t seem so scary now, does it?
The reason this news is bleak is because it pulls back the curtain on what was expected to be a pandemic that caused millions of deaths here in the United States. I was even told adamantly by a doctor that “someone you know will die from coronavirus, prepare yourself for that reality.”
For comparison, diabetes in this country has a mortality rate of 15% for those who are diagnosed. The deaths per capita for diabetes stands at 25.7, while the per capita deaths for the entire United States for coronavirus is 15. California alone has a per capita death rate of 3, as does San Diego County. In 2015, a study showed that over 55% of San Diegans are overweight and over 614 died from diabetes in 2013 alone. This would put the per capita death rate for diabetes around 19 in San Diego County—more than four times the per capita death rate of coronavirus.
I tell you this to show you the stark truth of the severity of this virus and to make you wonder whether or not the measures in place are extreme. Risk is involved in every activity we do and unfortunately, there is no way to prevent death in our society. The problem is that this information is not being presented as good news, but dire news. The question is really how much risk are we willing to accept?
Dr. Nicole Saphier pointed out the extreme health risk we’re currently taking by shutting down the economy.
As unemployment approaches 20%, each 1% rise can result in 3.3% spike in drug OD/ 1% increase in suicides (National Bureau of Economic Research.) If unemployment hits 32%, ~77,000 Americans may die as a result. Will economic fallout mortality be greater than the virus itself?
— Nicole Saphier, MD (@NBSaphierMD) April 17, 2020
Here in San Diego County, the unemployment rate spiked from 3.3% to 20.6%. The most recent data we have from 2018 shows that 464 San Diegans died of suicide. That would equal an increase of 80 people dying of suicide in San Diego. In 2017, 443 people died from drug overdoses (counting prescription, heroin, and fentanyl only). Following Dr. Saphier’s number, that’s a 57% increase in drug overdoses, putting the number at 695. The potential deaths from this economic shutdown more than triple the death toll here in San Diego. Are we willing to lose three people to suicide or drug overdose for every every person lost to the coronavirus? This is what true risk assessment is. Yet, nobody is posing the argument this way.
I have advocated for people to take a good look at the statistics coming out and examine what they mean for themselves, rather than through the lens of what the media or politicians want you to believe. The real question becomes: where do we go from here? Do we live in constant fear of a virus that is far less harmful than originally expected? Are we fine with letting three times the amount of people die from other causes such as suicide or drug overdose? Are people comfortable with the increases in domestic violence?
These are the real questions we need to be asking, and our media—and most politicians—fail to honestly address them. Therefore, it’s up to everyday Americans to examine the real numbers associated with this and start the conversation.
