By Keith Antigiovanni
The San Diego Padres closed the 2023 regular season on a winning note, defeating the Chicago White Sox, 2-1 to complete a three-game sweep on the road. The win clinched a winning record for the Padres at 82-80, third in four years and consecutive winning seasons for the only fifth time in the 55-year history of the franchise. The previous times they had consecutive winning seasons were 1984-1985, 1988-1989, 1991-1992 and 2004 through 2007.
The Padres finished the season strong, posting a 15-3 record, but it was too little, too late, as the club fell too far behind of too many teams by late in the season.
Now with 2023 in the books, what happens going forward into 2024 what will happen in the roster, front office, and manager for next season? Most of the starting lineup are expected to return, with the possible exception of Juan Soto. Soto is signed through next year but he is scheduled for arbitration and could end up as an unrestricted free agent in the offseason. Soto led the club in homeruns (35) and the Major League leader in walks (132). If the Padres choose not resign him it will create a hole in the lineup.
Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Trent Grisham, Jake Cronenworth and Matt Carpenter are also signed through next year and Gary Sanchez is scheduled to be a free agent. Tatis Jr and Grisham are both scheduled for arbitration.
On the pitching staff, Padres Ace Blake Snell contract expires and is set to become a free agent. Snell was brilliant this season, pitching 180 innings, starting 32 games and posting a 14-9 record, third in the Majors in strikeouts (234) and a Major League best 2.25 ERA. If the club is not intent on increasing payroll then resigning Snell is unlikely especially if he is about to be a top free agent in the open market.
Seth Lugo, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove are all signed through next year. Starter Michael Wacha could become a free agent this year if he exercises his option out of his current four-year contract. Wacha had a strong season with a 14-4 record, pitched 134.1 innings, 24 games started and a 3.22 ERA. Top reliever Josh Hader is also scheduled to become a free agent.
Overall, the Padres pitching staff was excellent as they allowed only 648 runs, second in the National League behind the NL Central champion Milwaukee Brewers (647). The Padres were fifth in runs scored in the NL, so the big question is, what went wrong? How could a team with such a strong roster and impressive statistics finish out of the postseason? One theory is that statistics can give you the facts, but sometimes they do not tell the entire story, especially when a team plays close games. The Padres were 9-23 in one-run games and 2-12 in extra innings.
Another problem is San Diego’s home record was above average at 44-37, but great teams have to dominate at home, and the Padres simply were not good enough at Petco and on the road below average at 38-43, Another reason for a strong home record is that in case the road record isn’t good then the home record can offset this. For example, perennial NL powers Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers dominated at home, the Braves going 52-29 and Dodgers 53-28. The Astros, on the other hands are the exception going 51-30 on the road but only 39-42 at home. The Astros are exception, not the rule, they are currently a baseball dynasty and thrive on playing on the road due to opposing fans feelings towards them. For the Padres to improve, they must win more at Petco.
Will ownership bring back General Manager (GM) AJ Preller and Manager Bob Melvin? AJ Preller has completed his 10th season as GM. In his 10 years, Preller has led the Padres to only 3 winning seasons (2020, 2022, 2023), but they are trending in the right direction as the roster has continued to improve every year under his direction, They are also coming off an NLCS appearance in 2022.
If Melvin comes back for a third season, he is 171-153 overall, two winning seasons and an NLCS appearance.
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