Written by Michael Palomba
Californians tend to become less supportive of ballot initiatives as election day nears, a study from CalMatters found. “The public’s net support for ballot initiatives declined by an average of about 7 percentage points each month,” the report stated.
So why are voters getting cold feet come election day? Well, there’s a few reasons:
- It largely depends on what they are voting on
Voters tend to shy away from bills that raise taxes or attempt to change the education system. However, they are far less likely to lose support for bills that lower taxes.
- It depends on the election
Support tends to drop more in general when there is a low-turnout election and in non-presidential years.
- There are exceptions
While the majority of the time support tends to dwindle, 29 percent of the time voters became more supportive of a bill over time. One example would be Prop 6, which passed while raising taxes because its mission of “fixing the roads” was acceptable to most voters.
Recent “split roll” initiatives aimed at generating billions in revenue for the state are an example of voters being opposed to tax increases. The organizers recently decided to throw out a ballot proposal they already had approved and file a new version.
The reason? Lack of public support.
Politico reports, “The move is rare, given that organizers will have to collect nearly twice as many signatures under new qualifying rules based on record voter turnout in the November 2018 election.”
Split roll property taxes would repeal many Prop 13 protections, which protect business property owners from ever-increasing property taxes.
While this would not directly hurt most individuals, it would hurt the small businesses they support, and the lack of support shows voters aren’t willing to let that happen.
The changes in the revised initiative are aimed at “improvements to implementation dates, expansive new small business tax relief, clarified education financing and stronger zoning language to ensure large corporations cannot avoid reassessment.’’
The original proposal would’ve generated between $7 billion and $11 billion in revenue, but it is unclear how much the new proposal will generate.
Support for Prop 13 protections, however, remain strong. In July, The Roundtable launched FightforProp13.org. They are focusing on informing Los Angeles voters directly by mail, with a statewide campaign in the works.
