{"id":9091,"date":"2023-01-25T13:42:33","date_gmt":"2023-01-25T20:42:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sandiegonewsdesk.com\/?p=9091"},"modified":"2023-01-25T13:43:07","modified_gmt":"2023-01-25T20:43:07","slug":"heres-how-republicans-could-actually-win-a-us-senate-seat-in-california","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sandiegonewsdesk.com\/?p=9091","title":{"rendered":"Here’s How Republicans Could Actually Win a US Senate Seat in California"},"content":{"rendered":"
The original story can be read\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/h5>\n
By Dylan Martin<\/span><\/h5>\n

As more prominent California Democrats enter the race to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein, Republicans actually have a chance of winning this Senate seat due to the flawed way California handles its elections. Reform California breaks down how two Republican candidates could actually snag the top-two spots in the 2024 primary election \u2014 thus shutting out the Democrats from making the general election runoff!<\/h3>\n

One of the biggest surprises in the 2024 election cycle could come in the form of the deep blue state of California electing its first Republican US Senator in 36 years! Yes, it actually could happen in Republicans play their cards right.<\/p>\n

Since the passage of the controversial Prop 14 in 2010, California no longer conducts elections like the rest of the nation. Prop 14 bans equal access to the general election for nominees of each political party in favor of a \u201ctop-two\u201d system.\u00a0Whichever two candidates place in the top two spots in the primary election automatically advance to the general election to determine which of those two will win the seat.<\/p>\n

There have been numerous examples since 2010 where Democrats have shut Republicans out of the general election by two Democrat candidates winning the most votes in the Primary because too many Republican candidates ran for the seat in the Primary and split the vote.<\/p>\n

In the top-two system, the top two vote-getters \u2014 regardless of party \u2014 advance to the November general elections. This means that, theoretically, Democrats could get shut out of the November ballot and leave two Republicans for voters to choose from. This fate is likely if too many prominent Democrats enter the race and split the vote.<\/p>\n

Carl DeMaio, chairman of Reform California, has long opposed Prop 14 and favors its repeal.\u00a0But he says the flawed system might finally come back to bite the Democrats and provide Republicans a benefit in 2024.<\/p>\n

If a lot of strong Democrat candidates run for this US Senate seat in 2024, DeMaio says the math is theoretically there for Democrats to get locked out of the general election.<\/p>\n

With U.S. Rep. Katie Porter (D) entering the race, incumbent Senator Dianne Feinstein (D) not ruling out re-election, and speculation about the candidacies of Reps. Adam Schiff (D), Barbara Lee (D), Ro Khanna (D), and more, these well-known democrats could split the vote and provide Republicans a chance.<\/p>\n

In the 2022 California U.S. Senate primary election, the Republican candidates received 37% of the vote and the Democrat candidates received 59% of the vote – with the remaining 4% going to lesser third parties . If the same 2022 percentages held and 4 prominent Democrats ran and split the vote evenly, they would each receive 14.75% of the vote.<\/p>\n

By the same token, if the same 2022 percentages held and 2 prominent Republicans ran and split the vote evenly, they would each receive 18.5% of the vote.<\/p>\n

DeMaio offered this illustration of how the primary outcome could lock Democrats out of the runoff:<\/p>\n