{"id":3002,"date":"2020-05-01T10:00:01","date_gmt":"2020-05-01T17:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sandiegonewsdesk.com\/?p=3002"},"modified":"2020-05-01T15:20:16","modified_gmt":"2020-05-01T22:20:16","slug":"stats-dont-lie-but-people-do","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sandiegonewsdesk.com\/?p=3002","title":{"rendered":"Stats Don’t Lie, But People Do"},"content":{"rendered":"

Written by Philip Mauriello Jr., Managing Attorney of <\/span>Arete Law A.P.C<\/span><\/a>. and host of the <\/span>California Underground Podcast<\/span><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Numbers don\u2019t lie, but those who benefit from extended shut downs do. This is becoming the realization across the country as more and more information continues to come to light in the wake of this pandemic.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Just the other day, a study released by the University of Southern California revealed that there are potentially hundreds of thousands of people who already had the coronavirus and showed no symptoms. This influx of new numbers shows that the true fatality rate of the virus is much lower than originally believed. A similar study out of Stanford indicated that the mortality rate is much lower, likely in the range of 0.02-0.12%. In the same week, New York released similar findings suggesting that almost three million residents have had the virus.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

People in the media are painting this as bleak news. \u201cSee how wide spread the virus is!? We must continue our efforts to flatten the curve!\u201d The only thing bleak about this news is it shows how badly we destroyed the livelihoods of millions of Americans over a virus that is not remotely as severe as it was made out to be.<\/span><\/p>\n

The numbers show the stark truth that the fatality rate of this virus is much lower than originally projected. Los Angeles, led by Democratic Mayor Eric Garcetti, argues that they are in for more shutdowns and social distancing probably until the end of the year. The data from the USC study does not support any reason for this to occur. If we are to take even the low number from the study and calculate, the mortality rate comes out to 0.3%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Here in San Diego, the number could be even lower. Just going off the actual numbers (not including how many people probably had it without testing positive), the mortality rate here in San Diego of those testing positive is about 4%.<\/span> Extend that out to include the entire county\u2019s population and you get 0.00003%. Doesn\u2019t seem so scary now, does it?<\/span><\/p>\n

The reason this news is bleak is because it pulls back the curtain on what was expected to be a pandemic that caused millions of deaths here in the United States. I was even told adamantly by a doctor that \u201csomeone you know will die from coronavirus, prepare yourself for that reality.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

For comparison, diabetes in this country has a mortality rate of 15% for those who are diagnosed. The deaths per capita for diabetes stands at 25.7,<\/span> while the per capita deaths for the entire United States for coronavirus is 15<\/span>. California alone has a per capita death rate of 3, as does San Diego County. In 2015, a study showed that over 55% of San Diegans are overweight and over 614 died from diabetes in 2013 alone<\/span>. This would put the per capita death rate for diabetes around 19 in San Diego County\u2014more than four times the per capita death rate of coronavirus.<\/span><\/p>\n

I tell you this to show you the stark truth of the severity of this virus and to make you wonder whether or not the measures in place are extreme. Risk is involved in every activity we do and unfortunately, there is no way to prevent death in our society. The problem is that this information is not being presented as good news, but dire news. The question is really how much risk are we willing to accept?<\/span><\/p>\n

Dr. Nicole Saphier pointed out the extreme health risk we’re currently taking by shutting down the economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

As unemployment approaches 20%, each 1% rise can result in 3.3% spike in drug OD\/ 1% increase in suicides (National Bureau of Economic Research.) If unemployment hits 32%, ~77,000 Americans may die as a result. Will economic fallout mortality be greater than the virus itself?<\/p>\n

— Nicole Saphier, MD (@NBSaphierMD) April 17, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n